Newbury Park

Conejo Valley Real Estate Trends: Is the Glass Half Empty or Half Full?

March 4th, 2010

The Glass Is Half Empty

The median price of homes in Ventura County is 35% below the peak in 2006. Thousand Oaks is off peak by 30%, while Westlake Village and Agoura Hills are off by 20 from Dec. 2006 to Dec. 2009. Moorpark and Simi Valley are both off around 35%.

With federal home-buying incentives set to end in April, the budding housing market could be nipped.
Given the budget deficit and the lack of federal stimulus money, unemployment could jump again. And jobs shipped overseas may never come back.

The Glass Is Half Full

The housing market has stabilized and more gains are expected. Housing usually is the first indicator that a recession is ending.

Distressed sales are being absorbed as fast as they hit the market.

Ventura County’s median sales price is 15% higher than a year ago.

Locally, temporary unemployment is up, with the hope being that some temporary work will lead to full-time employment.

Thousand Oak retails sales are better than expected.

The Thousand Oaks Auto Mall has some of the best sales in the country.

While this is the worst recession since the Great Depression, we are, in the words of Cal State Channel Islands professor Sung Won Sohn, “beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel.”

P.S. from Sher: In the Acorn articles I read about these two forums, there was no mention of the “shadow” inventory – the many homes that are in distress either as short-sales or bank-owned properties that are not on the market. But given the low supply of homes and condos on the market – only about 550 homes currently in the Conejo Valley, compared with 1300 by mid-2006 – it’s easy to believe many of these will be absorbed by demand. Currently, as Mark Boud of Irvine-based Real Estate Economics, said, “We’re burning off distressed sales faster than we’re creating them.”