Even the venerable LA Times now putsma positive spin on the So Cal Housing Market.  Check the 4/25/12 front page:  “Housing Market May Be on Rebound at Last.” The article goes on the say: “New data show price declines easing in big cities, sales of new homes improving nationally and foreclosures in California dropping to levels not seen since 2007.”

In the Conejo Valley we are down to fewer than 500 listings – 40% fewer than last year at this time, and fewer than half  of those are priced under $750,000. With sales in this price category averaging about 140 homes a month, that gives us 1.4 months of inventory. In all price categories the months of inventory is 2.7:  very low numbers, indicating the pendulum has swung to the sellers’ side.

Message: If you have been thinking about selling, now is the time to let me know! The demand part of the supply and demand curve is finally kicking in. Higher prices are already here in some areas of town and for certain types of property.

 If you are in the market to buy, get off the fence! Bidding wars are the norm, and homes are selling above list price and even above loan appraisal prices. Assuming the supply-demand trend continues, home prices will trend up and in some cases already have.

If you would like statistics for your neighborhood, let me know:

North Ranch Sold Report 2012

 North Ranch Sold Report 2012 through 3/15/12

Meanwhile the number of opened escrows – a leading indicator – hit 300, a number not repeated since 2005. For the past year we’ve dealt with a low supply of homes throughout the Conejo Valley, but demand has been light.

Tune in to next month’s “Spin” to see if this good news bodes a positive trend!

This report does not include sales in the Master Series, the Ben Johnson Fairway homes, Fairway Oaks or Fairgreen Townhomes. For this information or for a 2012 update to this report, please contact me.

The information in this report was provided through the Southland Regional Association of Realtors MLS as of 2/6/12. The listings and sales are not exclusive to Ewing & Associates Sotheby’s International Realty and may have been represented by other brokers. Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed by the MLS.

 With all the numbers that are bandied about as indicators of  the health of the housing market, it’s hard to sort out what is  really happening in our own backyard. In a nutshell for the Conejo Valley, the number of homes on the market, the number of homes sold and the average and median prices are all down from 2010 – but not dramatically lower.

As we look forward, is there any reason for optimism?  The answer appears to be “yes,” with a drawl. To quote national real estate sales coach Tom Ferry, those people in the market to buy a home who don’t do so in the first half of 2012 will be sorry five years from now.  He does not predict a huge leap in prices but rather a gradual uptick.

His assessment coincides with my perception of what’s happening in our local area.  At the end of January, the supply of homes for sale was down almost 20% from January 2011, and closed sales were up 20%.  Tales of homes selling with multiple offers abound, and almost daily I get an email from an agent in my company who needs a particular property for a buyer and can’t find it in current inventory.  Eventually the law of supply and demand should kick in and nudge prices upward.  And although worries persist about the shadow inventory, most short sales and REOs (bank-owned properties) are selling at market value when their condition is taken into account.

As for my personal barometer, I am no longer getting coupons in the LA Times for the Macaroni Grill and CPK. Surely that is cause for optimism in the long run!

If you would like a market update for your neighborhood, please call or reply to this email. I am always happy to give you an update, be it for refinancing or simply a need to know.

Ten Tips for High Value Home Appraisals

And, of course, the same advice goes for appraisals when you are a home seller.

Don’t jump for joy yet, however. Even if you your loan is held by Fannie or Freddie, if you also have an equity line or a second trust deed, your chances for refinancing are not good unless you can pay off this second loan.

Questions to ask yourself: First of all, are you a mortgage holder in good standing? If you have never missed a payment, have excellent credit and the underlying owner of your loan is one of these government programs, you may be in good shape. If you have one of these loans plus a second trust deed, the task may be tougher or impossible.

What to do: Call your loan servicer – the company you make your payments to – and ask if Fannie, Freddie or FHA holds your loan. If so, ask to speak with the department that could discuss refinancing.

Next, ask if FHA, Fannie or Freddie is the underlying owner of your loan. You have a legal right to know this. If the answer is yes, discuss refinancing the loan. You cannot “shop’ the loan between servicers (again, the name of the company on the mortgage statement) but you may be able to do a streamline refinance without an appraisal.

What NOT to do: Do NOT ask for a loan modification if you want to find out about refinancing. These two departments don’t know what the other is doing, and the “loan mod” folks have no incentive to forward your inquiry. (In fact, they have very little incentive to process your loan modification, which explains why only some 1,350,000 loan modifications had been approved by March of last year.)

Botton line: A streamline refi is worth a try if you meet the basic criteria.

For more information on how this will affect your home-purchasing power or the pool of buyer who can buy your home, please contact me.